Hooray, it's hockey season again!
1. There will be no “return to 05-06 form” for Joe Thornton
And no, this has nothing to do with him receiving the C. Joe’s production has dropped off considerably since his 125-point outburst in his split Boston/San Jose year, and the reason for that has very little to do with Joe himself. The fact is, the league is now fully adjusted to the faster pace of play of the “new” NHL, rosters have changed to reflect the new reality, and as a result scoring has dropped. Last year, only seven players hit the 40 goal plateau - Crosby, Stamkos, Ovechkin, Marleau, Gaborik, Kovalchuk, and Semin - and of the remaining players, only Heatley and Parise had more than 35 (and at 35 were just two names - Burrows and Ryan). Similarly, only four players posted over 100 points last year - Henrik Sedin, Crosby, Ovechkin, and Backstrom. Joe Thornton had a fine year last year with 89 points, which actually represented a slight uptick from his 2008-09 numbers, but it’s abundantly clear that he isn’t in the same offensive tier as Crosby, Ovechkin, and Backstrom (I fully expect the Sedins to regress toward their historical averages), which isn’t a slight to Joe so much as it is an acknowledgment of the offensive genius those three players possess. Joe may be the game’s best passer, but he falls short in the goal scoring department and on the rush. To be clear, I fully expect Joe to be productive this year, and with a slight uptick in the goal-scoring pace I don’t think 25 goals and 95 points is unreasonable. However, in my opinion, Joe Thornton’s 100+ point days are over, and at age 31 it’s unreasonable to expect him to suddenly attain the numbers that he put up as a 26 year old again.
More predictions, after the jump.
2. Neither Dany Heatley nor Patrick Marleau will reach 40 goals
When looking at the list of 40-goal players last year, Marleau’s name is the one that stands out the most as out of place, and I still don’t consider Heatley to be on the same level as the other 40 goal men from last year because of his relative inability to create his own offense on the rush. Combined with Todd McLellan’s newfound commitment to spreading the scoring out across the top 9 forwards (we’ll see how long that lasts), I get the sneaking suspicion that the goals will be spread out much more this year. Marleau-Couture-Heatley, McGinn-Pavelski-Setoguchi, and Clowe-Pavelski-Mitchell should all be very productive lines, but if the plan is to roll the top three lines more or less equally at even strength, individual scoring numbers are bound to suffer. Granted, Marleau and Heatley will still get theirs on the first power play unit, but you can’t build a 40 goal season out of just power play goals. Point-per-game seasons for these two are still pretty much a given, but I think it’ll be much more likely that less of those points will be goals - say, 35-45 instead of 40-40. This, of course, will be balanced out by what I expect will be improved offensive efforts from Setoguchi, Pavelski, Clowe, and Couture.
3. Neither Antti Niemi and Antero Niittymaki will seize the starting job
To be frank, neither Niemi nor Niittymaki has ever been a legitimate #1 goaltender in the NHL, and while their numbers in limited action (Niemi’s moreso than Niittymaki’s) were/are impressive, those cannot simply be extrapolated to a full NHL season (see: Marc Denis, Mike Smith). I fully expect that neither goaltender will find the consistency necessary to wrest the starting job away from the other, and that the battle will continue all the way until the all-star break, at which point I expect McLellan to begin looking for the hot hand to carry the team into the playoffs. I’m not yet ready to say that there will be a goaltending change in the playoffs themselves, but I wouldn’t be surprised. This is the Sharks’ equivalent of the Price/Halak situation, except with less talented versions of each and (to compensate) a better team in front of them. But just so my leanings are clear - if I had to predict right now the starting goaltender for Game 1 of the Western Conference Quarterfinals, I’d have to put my money on Niemi.
4. The defense won’t be as big a problem as everyone expects
Okay, so Nic Wallin’s presence on the second pairing and his contract are tough to swallow. And yes, the departure of Rob Blake without a replacement will hurt. But really, I don’t think things are quite as dire as they appear to be. At some point this year, I fully expect Boyle-Wallin to be a regular pairing, with Wallin filling the Brad Lukowich role and Doug Murray shifting down to form a slightly worse version of the Vlasic-Blake pairing. I think Demers will be much improved in his second year, and his pairing with Huskins was already quite reasonable last year. I also fully expect that Doug Wilson will add a defenseman at the first possible opportunity. What we see now is almost certainly not what we’re going to get in April, so I’m honestly not all that concerned. The defense as it is now certainly isn’t ideal, but I think it’s good enough and the forwards defensively responsible enough that it won’t be a major stumbling block.
5. There will be seven Sharks with 20+ goals and 50+ points this year
If there’s one thing the Sharks are not lacking in, it’s offensive depth. Thornton, Marleau, Heatley, Clowe, Setoguchi, and Pavelski have all hit the 20 goal/50 point plateau in their careers, and in my opinion would all have hit it last year were it not for some unfortunate circumstances - namely, an early injury to Setoguchi that clearly hindered him throughout the year, and a protracted slump by Clowe. Even so, Setoguchi still managed to hit the 20 goal mark, Clowe still managed 57 points (albeit only with 19 goals), and Pavelski got 25 goals and 51 points in just 67 games. And if Logan Couture sticks as the center between Marleau and Heatley, I find it very difficult to imagine him not cracking 50 points, and the kid’s AHL performance suggests that he has at least 20-goal pop in him if he gets a regular shift. To be fair, Jamie McGinn and Torrey Mitchell have certainly not proven anything with respect to their scoring capabilities, although McGinn did pot 10 goals in 59 games last year while playing limited minutes, which is quite reasonable. Still, if they can each contribute even 10 goals apiece, a mark that both of them have hit already in their young careers, that should be more than enough. The Sharks got 199 goals from their top nine goal-scoring forwards last year, and I don’t think it should be very difficult for them to eclipse that mark this year.
With the Sharks’ season opener just 2.5 hours or so away, I’m interested to see whether the improvement up front (adding Couture, a healthy Mitchell, and a full-time slot for McGinn) can compensate for the losses on the defense and in net. While my gut says no, only time will tell.
Until next time!
No comments:
Post a Comment