Since I haven't yet written about the moves (and there were quite a few) that Doug Wilson has made so far this offseason, I figured that now would be as good a time as any. Part 1 will focus on player retention - guys who had contracts in San Jose last year and were re-upped, whereas Part 2 will focus on new signings and players who were let go. That leaves us with:
Part 1 -
Patrick Marleau
Joe Pavelski
Devin Setoguchi
Niclas Wallin
Jason Demers
Part 2-
Evgeni Nabokov
Rob Blake
Manny Malhotra
Jamal Mayers
Antero Niittymaki
Straight into the analysis, after the jump.
Patrick Marleau
Previous Contract: 2 years, $6.3M/yr
New Contract: 4 years, $6.9M/yr
Last Season: 44g, 39a // 8g, 5a
For the past two years, I think Patrick Marleau has been the Sharks' best player by a fairly wide margin. He's been the team's leading goal scorer two years running, including an impressive 44-goal season last year, and as if that weren't enough, he is also one of the team's key penalty killers, puts up solid numbers on the power play, and is an excellent faceoff man. Last year, only three players in the league scored more goals than Patrick - Stamkos, Crosby, and Ovechkin - and that is some lofty company to be in. His point producing pace slowed down markedly toward the end of last year, which is slightly worrying because the same thing happened the year before (albeit due to injury), so that's something to keep an eye on for this coming year. In the playoffs, he was fairly unimpressive until the middle of the Detroit series (his Game 3 OT winner an obvious example), and he really exploded against Chicago, scoring all but one of the team's goals in that series. This contract is probably a significant discount from what he would have gotten on the open market, and in my opinion Patrick Marleau is worth every penny. The man should retire a Shark, and he's certainly earned this contract over the last few years. I don't expect Marleau to duplicate his 44 goal season, but I think 35 goals and 50 assists is certainly a reasonable point total to shoot for.
Joe Pavelski
Previous Contract: 2 years, $1.638M/yr
New Contract: 4 years, $4M/yr
Last Season: 25g, 26a // 9g, 8a
Little Joe, now known as "the Big Pavelski", made a huge impression during last year's playoffs, where his line essentially carried the Sharks through to round 2. However, as soon as the Chicago series came around, Pavelski's line lost fire just as quickly as it had caught it - they were invisible for most of that series. Pavelski is a legitimate second line center on the level of Ryan Kesler, and in that sense $4 million per year is quite a bargain, but his primary issue is consistency. One problem with being a jack of all trades is that you don't have some inherent physical characteristic to fall back on when the inevitable slump happens - for example, Marleau has his speed, Heatley and Setoguchi have their shots, and Clowe and Thornton have their size, but Pavelski's game revolves primarily around his smarts, and when that's not working he doesn't have a dominant physical attribute to fall back on. Nevertheless, Pavelski is a defensively responsible player who can easily contribute more than the 51 points he put up last year now that Setoguchi will presumably have snapped out of his season-long sophomore slump, and frankly the $4 million contract is a steal. Pavelski really isn't quite as good as Ryan Kesler, but I don't think the difference is large enough to justify the $1 million disparity between their contracts, and as a Shark fan I'm happy that Pavelski's willingness to accept a small second contract worked out for him. I'm looking for Pavelski to improve slightly on last year's totals - 25 goals, 30-35 assists.
Devin Setoguchi
Previous Contract: ELC - 3 years, $1.25M/yr
New Contract: 1 year, $1.8M
Last Year: 20g, 16a // 5g, 4a
Setoguchi is a curious case. On the one hand, he did struggle with an early injury that seemed to rob him of all of his early season momentum, and he never quite recovered from that en route to posting a disappointing sophomore season. On the flip side, everyone saw what he was capable of both in the playoffs (respectable numbers) and two years ago, when he put up 31 goals and 34 assists. Setoguchi is a speedy winger with a lethal shot, and he oozes potential, but as with Pavelski, he is somewhat inconsistent and questions remain as to whether or not he can bounce back after last year. I think he will, and his contract indicates that everyone else thinks he will too - a 1 year deal for low money is similar to the second contracts that both Clowe and Pavelski took when they were still proving themselves to the San Jose organization, and I have no doubt that Seto will be similarly rewarded if he delivers the goods this year. Playing with Pavelski and Clowe instead of Thornton and Marleau probably means that he won't get back to his 65-point high water mark, but I think 25 goals and 30 assists is a reasonable expectation. This is a fair deal for all parties involved - there's no way Setoguchi signs a long term deal for this kind of money, and San Jose is right to not sign him to a long term deal at bigger money if he can't prove his ability to consistently deliver at the NHL level, so we'll see what happens.
Niclas Wallin
I've already discussed him on the blog. Suffice it to say that while I hate the contract, I fully support Doug Wilson's reasons for giving that contract to Nic and honoring his word. The organization will be better off in the medium and long run thanks to this demonstration of Doug Wilson keeping his word.
Jason Demers
Last Contract: ELC - 3 years, $543,333/yr
New Contract: 2 years, $1.25M/yr
Last Year: 4g, 17a // 1g, 5a
Ah, the prodigal 7th round pick turned potential power play quarterback. Again, I think Doug Wilson is smart not to shell out big money for long term without an intermediate contract to test Demers' ability to deliver consistently. $1.25M/yr is a nice number because if Demers performs up to expectations, it's not a gigantic underpayment, whereas if he can't duplicate his results from last season, it's not a huge burden on the Sharks' cap. I don't really see Demers as a top 4 defenseman in the league quite yet, but there is the hope that he may turn into a sort of reverse Josh Gorges - a serviceable man on the defensive end with plenty of offensive smarts to make up for it (whereas Gorges' strengths lie on the defensive end). His pairing with Huskins last year was surprisingly effective despite the grief that they got from all angles, and I expect to see that same pairing return this year. I'm looking for a 30 point year for Demers this year - 5 goals, 25 assists.
Part I Concluding Thoughts
I think Doug Wilson did a much better job this year than he did the past few in not giving out overly large contracts for promises not yet delivered upon (see Torrey Mitchell). Marleau, Pavelski, and Setoguchi all came in at well under market value, and Demers' contract is in the ballpark of what I would have expected him to make, and the combined savings more than makes up for the albatross that is Niclas Wallin's contract. I expect the increased cap flexibility will come in handy before training camp starts (I fully expect Sheldon Souray to be a Shark when all is said and done), or barring that, at the trade deadline, where most of the major contenders likely will not have the cap space to add any significant pieces.
Until next time!
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