Wednesday, July 21, 2010

The Curious Case of Niclas Wallin

All you really have to do is say the name "Niclas Wallin" to any Sharks fan who has been paying attention for the last month, and you'll immediately get a reaction. And odds are, it won't be positive. What has he done to deserve such animosity? Well, before we dive into the obvious answer to that question, let's have a little history lesson, shall we?

Last February, Doug Wilson traded the Sharks' 2nd round pick in the 2010 Entry Draft (53rd overall - Mark Alt) for Niclas Wallin and the Canes' 5th round pick in the 2010 draft (127th overall - Cody Ferreiro). At the time, the Sharks defense was composed of Dan Boyle, Rob Blake, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Douglas Murray, Kent Huskins, Jason Demers, and Jay Leach; Wallin was clearly brought in to provide depth on the third pairing, as the Boyle-Murray and Blake-Vlasic pairings had pretty much been constant since opening night. It's worth noting that Vlasic was injured at the time, leading to speculation that the injury was worse than the organization was letting on.

At the time, I was already a little suspicious of the move - throwing away a 2nd round pick, even a low one, isn't something to be taken lightly given the Sharks' relative lack of organizational depth, and in my mind Wallin wasn't a clear upgrade on either Huskins or Murray. I thought that is Vlasic was the issue, Wilson would try and target a better player to take his place in the lineup, so I assumed that Vlasic would be fine for the playoffs. Still, I thought that Wallin would provide valuable insurance in case one of Huskins or Demers decided to wet the bed or get injured during the playoffs; with all due respect to Jay Leach, giving him significant ice time was not going to end well for San Jose. So, ho-hum, just a depth trade at the deadline, nothing to see here...right?

See why that's not the case, after the jump!



Well, what makes this so interesting is the circumstances surrounding that trade five months ago. After TSN's James Duthie characterized the deal as 'imminent', several additional reports labeled the deal dead because of Wallin's refusal to waive his NTC. According to those sources, Wallin refused to waive unless an extension was included; rumor had it that he wanted 2 years, which Carolina did not want to give him and that San Jose wouldn't agree to before pulling the trigger on the deal. After a small flurry of activity, the deal seemed dead...until four days later, when suddenly and magically Wallin is pulling on a teal sweater and any extension talk at all is curiously absent.

So Wallin gets hurt, San Jose soldiers on without him, gets bounced in the WCF by Chicago, yada yada. In the off-season, news of Marleau and Pavelski re-signing is coupled with the news that Nabokov was being shown the door, at which point the conversation turned to keeping pieces like Manny Malhotra and Devin Setoguchi while possibly finding a UFA defenseman to take Blake's spot in the lineup. And then, out of nowhere - Niclas Wallin signs a 1-year, $2.5 million deal...with a NO TRADE CLAUSE. The wails and lamentations of Sharks fans everywhere are heard as the Sharks lose Manny Malhotra to Vancouver (for the same $2.5 million figure, no less) and fail to attract any big-name UFA defenseman, making the prospect of a Boyle-Vlasic-Murray-Wallin top 4 a real and scary possibility.

I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to figure out what happened here - Doug Wilson wanted Wallin in his lineup for last year's playoffs, and Wallin wanted a contract extension and refused to waive without one. My best guess is that Wallin agreed to a hefty raise ($1.775M->$2.5M) in exchange for the deal being for one year instead of the two he wanted. I don't think there's any doubt that the Sharks should not have promised Wallin anything at all, and in hindsight the Sharks certainly didn't need him. I certainly agree with most Sharks fans that Wallin's contract is by far the worst on the team, and that the value proposition is awful. What I will not agree on, however, is the idea that Doug Wilson should have broken his promise.

It's already hard enough for the Sharks to attract quality free agents. Ever since the lockout, the Sharks have been passed over by one big free agent after another. Seriously - just think about it. Scott Niedermayer, Zdeno Chara, Chris Pronger, Chris Drury...all marquee free agents in their respective UFA classes, and all of them passed over the Sharks for one reason or another. Consider that the most common compliment you hear out of Sharks players is that the organization treats them with respect and makes them feel welcome. This is the kind of sentiment that makes star players like Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton take discounts to stay in San Jose rather than test unrestricted free agency. This is the kind of sentiment that makes Joe Pavelski take $1.6 million x 2 years in restricted free agency. This is the kind of sentiment that makes players like Devin Setoguchi ruin their bargaining positions publicly by saying that he wants to be in San Jose and hasn't considered going elsewhere. All of that goodwill, the disciplined salary structure that goes back as far as the turn of the century (more on this some other time), all of it - would disappear instantly if word got out that the Sharks promised Wallin a contract and then reneged once they had gotten what they wanted.

Oh sure - in hindsight, Doug Wilson never should have made the Wallin deal in the first place, and he certainly shouldn't have promised an extension. But, having done so, it would be foolish of Doug Wilson to throw away all of that good will for $2.5 million in cap space for one year. Having given Antero Niittymaki the reins in net (and saving $3.4 million against the cap by doing so), the Sharks still have plenty of cap space to flesh out their roster even with the albatross of Wallin's contract hanging around for a year. And, if the Niklas Hjalmarsson offer sheet is any indication, Doug Wilson must have a few ideas about how to boost the defense while shedding enough salary to make everything fit.

In my opinion, all of the Chicken Littles out there claiming that the sky is falling and that the Sharks aren't going to make the playoffs because Wallin is getting paid $2.5 million are just deluding themselves. The team as currently composed is still easily a top-4 team in the West, and in the playoffs anything can happen. And in my opinion, it's better to have Cup hopes dim a little bit in the short term while continuing to build good will and be a perennial contender than it is to ruin the franchise's already-slim chances of landing marquee free agents by needlessly going back on a promise.

And come on - even if the $2.5 million to Wallin didn't happen, were you really going to apply that $2.5 million to one of the UFA defensemen that went on July 1, for that kind of money and that kind of term? Or use it on Manny Malhotra, with Logan Couture ready to step into his shoes and Joe Pavelski re-signed? More on this sometime soon, but my personal answer to all of the above questions is a resounding "no".

Until next time!

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