Joe Thornton Re-Ups: 3 Years, $21 Million

Well, you can add Joe Thornton to the list of Sharks that took a pay cut to stay in San Jose.

There's not really much to be said about this one, so I don't even think a jump is necessary. $7 million is well below Thornton's market value, and the 3-year term jives both with Joe's stated distaste for long-term deals and the closing of the Sharks' current Stanley Cup window. Thornton, Marleau, Heatley, Pavelski, and Boyle will all be unrestricted free agents in the summer of 2013-14, and if the current group doesn't win a Cup between now and then, you have to expect some major changes to be coming during that off-season. Heck, Thornton even took a pay cut in absolute dollars to make the salary structure work; at least Marleau can say he got a raise. You have to think that Thornton would have commanded at least Brad Richards' $7.8 million salary on the open market, so this is a substantial pay cut indeed.

This is the fruit of the tree, the flip side of the Wallin deal - when you treat your players with respect, honor your word, and do your best to make them feel like part of the family however long they wind up staying in San Jose, players like Joe Thornton notice, enjoy, and return the sentiment. So the next time you think about complaining about Wallin, think about that for a little bit. 

Why Antti Niemi Is A Clear Upgrade Over Niittymaki and Greiss

All right, so I know just a few posts down I predicted that neither Niemi or Niittymaki would grab the reins on the #1 goalie spot this year until after the all-star break, and that seems to flatly contradict the headline on this post. I don't think it does, though, and hopefully I'll be able to explain why in a cogent manner. This comes up because while picking a fight on HFBoards the other day for kicks, I came across several posters who seem to think that all of Niemi, Niittymaki, and Greiss are more or less interchangeable pieces, which I think is flatly wrong and supported by the numbers.

Just to get the first and most obvious argument out of the way: Antti Niemi is not purely a product of the team that played in front of him.

Let me repeat that: Antti Niemi is NOT purely a product of the team that played in front of him.

Hear me out, after the jump.

Defensive Minute Madness

I suppose there are worse ways to start out a season than 1-0-1, but the Sharks certainly didn't impress me very much right out of the gates as they took on the Blue Jackets in a pair of games overseas. As expected, the top forwards were spread out amongst the first three lines at even strength, but the Marleau-Thornton-Heatley-Pavelski-Boyle power play that we saw throughout most of last year's Stanley Cup Playoffs carried over to this year. Meanwhile, Todd McLellan kept the Boyle-Murray and Demers-Huskins pairings from last year as well, meaning that Vlasic was the one who skated with Wallin.

It seems that Todd McLellan acknowledges that something needs to be done about the defense, and the ATOI through the first two games for the six guys that got in there seems to illustrate that. To wit:

Dan Boyle - 28:04
Douglas Murray - 20:35
Marc-Edouard Vlasic -  18:43
Jason Demers - 18:04
Niclas Wallin - 17:08
Kent Huskins - 13:24

Some thoughts about this wide disparity, after the jump.

Five Predictions for 2010-2011

Hooray, it's hockey season again!

1. There will be no “return to 05-06 form” for Joe Thornton
And no, this has nothing to do with him receiving the C. Joe’s production has dropped off considerably since his 125-point outburst in his split Boston/San Jose year, and the reason for that has very little to do with Joe himself. The fact is, the league is now fully adjusted to the faster pace of play of the “new” NHL, rosters have changed to reflect the new reality, and as a result scoring has dropped. Last year, only seven players hit the 40 goal plateau - Crosby, Stamkos, Ovechkin, Marleau, Gaborik, Kovalchuk, and Semin - and of the remaining players, only Heatley and Parise had more than 35 (and at 35 were just two names - Burrows and Ryan). Similarly, only four players posted over 100 points last year - Henrik Sedin, Crosby, Ovechkin, and Backstrom. Joe Thornton had a fine year last year with 89 points, which actually represented a slight uptick from his 2008-09 numbers, but it’s abundantly clear that he isn’t in the same offensive tier as Crosby, Ovechkin, and Backstrom (I fully expect the Sedins to regress toward their historical averages), which isn’t a slight to Joe so much as it is an acknowledgment of the offensive genius those three players possess. Joe may be the game’s best passer, but he falls short in the goal scoring department and on the rush. To be clear, I fully expect Joe to be productive this year, and with a slight uptick in the goal-scoring pace I don’t think 25 goals and 95 points is unreasonable. However, in my opinion, Joe Thornton’s 100+ point days are over, and at age 31 it’s unreasonable to expect him to suddenly attain the numbers that he put up as a 26 year old again.

More predictions, after the jump.

Rating the Offseason, Part 1 - Player Retention

Since I haven't yet written about the moves (and there were quite a few) that Doug Wilson has made so far this offseason, I figured that now would be as good a time as any. Part 1 will focus on player retention - guys who had contracts in San Jose last year and were re-upped, whereas Part 2 will focus on new signings and players who were let go. That leaves us with:

Part 1 -
Patrick Marleau
Joe Pavelski
Devin Setoguchi
Niclas Wallin
Jason Demers

Part 2-
Evgeni Nabokov
Rob Blake
Manny Malhotra
Jamal Mayers
Antero Niittymaki

Straight into the analysis, after the jump.

Tweaking the Defense

Niclas Wallin in the top 4? Say it ain't so.

Sadly, that is the predicament the Sharks would find themselves in if the season started today. The current setup would likely be something like this:

Dan Boyle ($6.666m) / Douglas Murray ($2.500m)
Marc-Edouard Vlasic ($3.100m)  / Niclas Wallin ($2.500m)
Kent Huskins ($1.700m) / Jason Demers ($0.543m)
Jay Leach ($0.500m)

While not abjectly terrifying, that defense setup still gives me the willies. The loss of Rob Blake, who even at his advanced age was a legitimately good second-pairing defenseman, cannot just be ignored, but most of the top tier UFA defensemen have already moved - Paul Martin and Zbynyk Michalek to Pittsburgh, Anton Volchenkov to New Jersey, Sergei Gonchar to Ottawa, Dan Hamhuis to Vancouver. Most of the second tier is gone too - guys like Kubina, Sutton, Zidlicky, Morris, Tallinder, Lydman, Grebeshkov, Seidenberg, Leopold. So what's left?

Let's examine a few options that still remain, after the jump.

The Five Most Important Players in San Jose Sharks History

Following is my opinion regarding the five most important players in the Sharks' 19 year history. These are not the best players in the abstract (though as you will see, the players on this list are certainly no slouches); instead, the list reflects what I believe to be the five players most responsible for moving the franchise forward from a doormat to a perennial contender. Of course, reasonable minds may disagree, but that's to be expected. Also note that I changed my mind about the #5 slot, but had already finished writing what was initially supposed to go there, so as a result you get a bonus #6, free of charge. 

Without further ado, the list:
6. Patrick Marleau
5. Arturs Irbe
4. Vincent Damphousse
3. Ed Belfour
2. Joe Thornton
1. Owen Nolan

I know at least one of those names is going to jump out at any Sharks fan who was around in the mid-90s, so see my reasoning after the jump!